Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar is showing positive dynamics

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
00:30JapanServices PMIMay55.456.355.9
01:00AustraliaMI Inflation Gauge, m/mMay0.2% 0.9%
01:30AustraliaANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)May-0.7% 0.1%
01:30AustraliaCompany Gross Profits QoQQuarter I12.7%2%0.5%
01:45ChinaMarkit/Caixin Services PMIMay56.4 57.1
06:00GermanyTrade Balance (s.a.), blnApril14.91618.4
06:30SwitzerlandConsumer Price Index (MoM) May0%0.3%0.3%
06:30SwitzerlandConsumer Price Index (YoY)May2.6%2.2%2.2%

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose moderately against major currencies, continuing Friday's rally due to the reassessment of the Fed's monetary policy prospects amid strong employment data.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.19% to 104.21.

The US Department of Labor said on Friday that the nonfarm payrolls increased by 339,000 in May, exceeding expectations (+190,000) and accelerating compared to April (+253,000). Despite the high hiring rate, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.4% in April (53-year low). The report also showed that the average hourly wage, a key indicator of inflation, increased by 0.3% over the month, which was in line with expectations. On an annualized basis, wages increased by 4.3%, which was 0.1% lower than forecast. The report did not have a strong impact on market expectations regarding the Fed's June decision - they still believe that the Central Bank will leave rates unchanged. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected employment growth eased concerns about a hard landing of the US economy, which contributed to increased investor optimism. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a 78.7% chance that Fed policymakers will leave rates unchanged at their June 13-14 meeting. A week ago, the chances of this step were estimated at 35.8%. But, for July, markets put 55,6% odds for rates to be at least a quarter point above where they are currently.

The Australian dollar declined markedly against the US dollar, despite favorable data on China, Australia's key trading partner. According to the Caixin report, the services sector in China continued to expand in May, and at a faster rate. Services PMI rose to 57.1 from 56.4 in April. The steeper upturn in activity coincided with a stronger rise in overall new business received by Chinese service providers in May. The rate of growth was likewise the second-sharpest since November 2020. The survey also showed that the composite index climbed to 55.6 from 53.6 in April.

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