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Ekonomické zprávy

ECB Economic Bulletin: Inflation is likely to remain high for too long

  • At the beginning of 2023, global economic activity was stronger than expected

  • The global economy was supported by the recovery of the Chinese economy, as well as the stability of the US labor market

  • Trade remained relatively weak as the recovery in activity was concentrated in less trade-intensive demand components such as services.

  • Overall inflation in the world continues to decline, but core inflation remains at an elevated level.

  • Lower energy prices, elimination of supply problems and fiscal policy support for firms and households have contributed to the resilience of the eurozone economy.

  • Private domestic demand, especially consumption, is likely to remain weak.

  • Business and consumer confidence has been steadily recovering in recent months, but remains weaker than before Russia's war against Ukraine.

  • Household incomes are benefiting from the strength of the labor market, with the unemployment rate falling to a new historical low of 6.5% in March.

  • As the energy crisis weakens, governments should promptly and consistently scale back appropriate support measures to avoid strengthening medium-term inflationary pressures.

  • Fiscal policy should be focused on increasing the productivity of the eurozone economy and gradually reducing the high level of public debt.

  • Policies aimed at strengthening the eurozone's supply capacity, especially in the energy sector, can also help reduce price pressures in the medium term.

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