Ekonomické zprávy

European session review: GBP advances following UK’s GDP report

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
06:00United KingdomManufacturing Production (MoM) March0.1%-0.1%0.7%
06:00United KingdomManufacturing Production (YoY)March-1.9%-2.5%-1.3%
06:00United KingdomIndustrial Production (MoM)March-0.1%0%0.7%
06:00United KingdomBusiness Investment, q/qQuarter I-0.2%-0.4%0.7%
06:00United KingdomIndustrial Production (YoY)March-2.7%-2.9%-2%
06:00United KingdomBusiness Investment, y/yQuarter I10.8%11.9%3.2%
06:00United KingdomGDP, y/yMarch0.6%0.4%0.3%
06:00United KingdomTotal Trade BalanceMarch-3.354 -2.864
06:00United KingdomGDP, y/yQuarter I0.6%0.2%0.2%
06:00United KingdomGDP m/mMarch0%0%-0.3%
06:00United KingdomGDP, q/qQuarter I0.1%0.1%0.1%
06:45FranceCPI, y/yApril5.7%5.9%5.9%
06:45FranceCPI, m/mApril0.9%0.6%0.6%
07:00U.S.FOMC Member Bowman Speaks    

GBP strengthened against other major currencies in the European session on Friday as investors digested the latest GDP data from the UK.

In particular, the preliminary estimates of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the UK’s GDP grew 0.1% q/q in the first quarter of 2023, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of 2022. That was in line with economists' forecast. The details of the GDP report showed that all three main sectors of the economy - services (+0.1% q/q), manufacturing (+0.5% q/q), and construction (+0.7% q/q) - advanced in the first quarter. 

On a y/y basis, Britain’s economy expanded 0.2% in the first quarter after a 0.6% advance in the previous three-month period. That marked the smallest annual expansion rate since 2021.

It should be noted, however, that country’s GDP registered an unexpected construction of 0.3% m/m for March (economists had predicted no change), tempering markets’ optimism that Britain is starting to gain momentum. Commenting on the March result, the ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan noted that the decline was driven by widespread decreases across the services sector. 

Yesterday, the Bank of England said it no longer predicts the UK economy to enter recession this year. According to the Bank’s updated forecasts, the British GDP is expected to be flat over the first half of the year, and grow 0.9% by the middle of 2024 and 0.7% by mid-2025.

Podívejte se také