Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar is showing negative dynamics

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
03:00New ZealandExpected Annual Inflation 2y from nowQuarter II3.3% 2.79%
06:00United KingdomManufacturing Production (MoM) March0.1%-0.1%0.7%
06:00United KingdomManufacturing Production (YoY)March-1.9%-2.5%-1.3%
06:00United KingdomIndustrial Production (MoM)March-0.1%0%0.7%
06:00United KingdomBusiness Investment, q/qQuarter I-0.2%-0.4%0.7%
06:00United KingdomIndustrial Production (YoY)March-2.7%-2.9%-2%
06:00United KingdomBusiness Investment, y/yQuarter I10.8%11.9%3.2%
06:00United KingdomGDP, y/yMarch0.6%0.4%0.3%
06:00United KingdomTotal Trade BalanceMarch-3.354 -2.864
06:00United KingdomGDP, y/yQuarter I0.6%0.2%0.2%
06:00United KingdomGDP m/mMarch0%0%-0.3%
06:00United KingdomGDP, q/qQuarter I0.1%0.1%0.1%
06:45FranceCPI, y/yApril5.7%5.9%5.9%
06:45FranceCPI, m/mApril0.9%0.6%0.6%
07:00U.S.FOMC Member Bowman Speaks    

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies, which was caused by partial profit-taking after yesterday's rally. Overall, yesterday's data on the US labor market and producer prices strengthened the arguments in favor of the Fed suspending interest rate hikes. The reports were also seen as consistent with most economists' expectations of a recession by the end of the year.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.08% to 101.98. Yesterday the index rose by 0.68%, reaching the highest level since May 2.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 88.2% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting in mid-June. In addition, rate futures contracts point to trader expectations for the Fed to start cuts in September. According to analysts, there is still a large gap between the markets and the Fed in the time and amount of rate cuts, with markets expecting a rate cut of about 75-80 basis points, while the Fed has signaled that it does not intend to cut rates this year. However, the situation may change if the next inflation data, which will be released before the June meeting, indicate a further decline in prices.

Investors also continue to monitor the looming deadline for the U.S. debt ceiling. To date, the United States national debt ceiling is set at $31.4 trillion. The country reached this limit in January 2023. Potentially, the US government may run out of emergency measures due to reaching the national debt ceiling by June 1, which could lead to a default. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen due to discuss the impasse over raising the debt ceiling with board members of the Bank Policy Institute lobby group next week.

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