Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar shows negative dynamics

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
01:30AustraliaBuilding Permits, m/mMarch4% -0.1%
01:30AustraliaNational Australia Bank's Business ConfidenceApril-1  
06:00GermanyIndustrial Production s.a. (MoM)March2.1%-1.3%-3.4%

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies, continuing Friday's decline. Concerns about the credit crisis are putting pressure on the dollar. Investors are also preparing for the publication of US inflation data, which would challenge bets for a rate cut as soon as September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, U.S. interest rate futures are pricing about a 33% chance of a rate cut as soon as July, even though stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs data released on Friday suggests that might be premature.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.13% to 101.08.

Later today, the Fed's survey of loan officers will draw an unusual amount of attention as markets seek to gauge the impact of regional banking stress on lending. Investors will also be watching developments around the looming US debt ceiling. Last week, the Finance minister warned that the government might be unable to pay debts by June 1.

As for the US inflation data, they will be published on Wednesday. Consumer price inflation has weakened markedly since reaching a peak of 9.1% in May 2022. The overall CPI showed the smallest monthly increase in almost a year in March (+0.1%), while the annual growth was 5.0%. Core inflation remains much more stable. The rise in commodity inflation, largely driven by the recovery in new car prices, led to the fact that the annual growth of the core CPI accelerated to 5.6% in March from 5.5% in February. However, the March CPI also gave the first indication of a long-awaited slowdown in the rental rate, which fell from 0.8% in February to 0.5% in March. According to economists, the annual growth of the overall CPI remained at 5.0% in April, as higher fuel prices probably led to the fact that the monthly growth rate of the consumer price index accelerated to 0.4%. Experts also do not expect that consumers have felt a significant decline in prices for basic goods and services. The forecast assumes that core inflation remained elevated and increased by 0.4% for the month and by 5.5% per annum. In general, a slowdown in economic activity is likely to cause a significant slowdown in inflation, but a return to the target level of 2% will be long and thorny.

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