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Ekonomické zprávy
05.05.2023

ECB economists have lowered their inflation forecasts for 2023 and 2024

The results of a survey of professional ECB forecasters indicated that in the coming years, consumer inflation in the eurozone is likely to remain above the target level of 2%, but will slow down more than previously expected. Yesterday, the ECB raised the interest rate again, for the seventh time in a row, while money market prices showed investors were putting a high likelihood on another 0.25% increase in the deposit rate next month, but were less convinced the ECB would hike again after that.

ECB professional forecasters now expect CPI to grow by 5.6% this year (-0.3% compared to the previous forecast) and by 2.6% next year (-0.1% compared to the previous forecast). However, the inflation forecast for 2025 was raised by 0.1% to 2.2%. As for the growth of the core CPI, the forecast was raised only for 2023 (up to 4.9% from 4.4%).

Meanwhile, professional forecasters expect that this year the eurozone's GDP will grow by 0.6% (previous forecast: +0.2%), and in 2024 the economy will expand by 1.2% (-0.2% compared to the previous forecast). The unemployment forecast has also been revised: to 6.8% this year (-0.2% on the previous forecast) and to 6.8% in 2024 (-0.1% on the previous forecast). At 6.5%, unemployment is already far below this reading, however, and ECB policymakers are concerned that the labor market is getting overheated, prolonging high inflation.

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