Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar shows negative dynamics

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
01:30AustraliaRBA Monetary Policy Statement    
01:45ChinaMarkit/Caixin Services PMIApril57.8 56.4
05:45SwitzerlandUnemployment Rate (non s.a.)April2% 2%
06:00GermanyFactory Orders s.a. (MoM)March4.5%-2.2%-10.7%
06:30SwitzerlandConsumer Price Index (MoM) April0.2%0.2%0%
06:30SwitzerlandConsumer Price Index (YoY)April2.9%2.8%2.6%
06:45FranceNon-Farm PayrollsQuarter I0.2%0.2%0.2%
06:45FranceIndustrial Production, m/mMarch1.4%-0.3%-1.1%
07:00Switzerland Foreign Currency ReservesApril742.74 732.205

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined moderately against major currencies amid a reassessment of the Fed's monetary policy prospects and a correction of positions ahead of the publication of key data on the US labor market.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.21% to 101.19.

The yen rose 0.2% against the US dollar, helped by increased demand for safe haven assets amid another turmoil in the US banking sector. The deepening crisis in US regional banks is keeping investors on edge, while pressure is mounting on US regulators to take additional steps to strengthen the sector. Now traders priced in more aggressive rate cuts from the Fed, with Fed funds futures implying a small chance that cuts could come as soon as June and through to the end of the year.

Today, investors will focus on the US labor market report for April, which will provide additional clues about the impact on the economy of the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. In March, the nonfarm payrolls increased by 236 thousand, which is the weakest growth since December 2020. The signs were more encouraging in a separate survey of households, where employment increased by 577 thousand, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. The labor force participation rate also rose for the fourth month in a row. But the decline in hiring plans and the number of open vacancies indicate that the demand for workers continues to decline. Given that unusually warm weather at the beginning of the year delayed hiring somewhat, employment growth is expected to slow in April, and the unemployment rate rose again to 3.6%. Meanwhile, another increase in the average hourly wage by 0.3% m/m will keep the annual rate at 4.2%. According to forecasts, in April the number of employed people increased by 180 thousand after an increase of 236 thousand in March.

The Australian dollar rose 0.6% against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia warned in its quarterly monetary policy statement that risks to inflation were on the upside given low productivity growth, rising energy prices and a surge in rents as population growth outpaces all expectations.

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