Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar shows negative dynamics

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
01:30AustraliaRetail Sales, M/MMarch0.2% 0.4%

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined moderately against major currencies, continuing yesterday's fall, which was due to the reassessment of the Fed's monetary policy prospects after the publication of labor market data. Investors also focused on the US Treasury Department's announcement that the country could reach its debt ceiling sooner than expected.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.24% to 101.71.

The US Department of Labor announced yesterday that in March the number of vacancies decreased for the third month in a row, and the number of layoffs rose to the highest level in more than two years, which provided some hope that the softening in the labor market could aid the Fed's fight against inflation.

The Fed's two-day meeting is expected to end with the announcement of another 25 basis point rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders estimate a 91.3% chance of a rate hike. Investors will be looking for clues as to whether the Fed will keep rates at the same level after this meeting, or continue to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation.

The euro rose 0.3% against the US dollar, while investors are preparing for the ECB meeting. Yesterday's official data indicated an acceleration in overall inflation in the eurozone in April, but the growth of core inflation unexpectedly slowed down, strengthening the case for a smaller ECB rate hike (by 0.25%).

The Australian dollar rose 0.1% against the US dollar, continuing to receive support from the results of the RBA meeting. The focus was also on data from Australia. Preliminary data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that retail sales increased by 0.4% in March after a rise by 0.2% in February. Economists had expected an increase of 0.2%. It was the third monthly increase in a row. Meanwhile, in annual terms, the growth rate of retail sales slowed to 5.4% from 6.4% per annum, recording the weakest growth since September 2021. This result is a warning signal for consumption, which will only worsen after yesterday's unexpected increase in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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