The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its monthly oil market report that the reduction in OPEC+ oil production could worsen the oil supply deficit expected in the second half of the year, as well as negatively affect the global economic recovery.
"Against the background of higher prices for petroleum products, consumers will now have to allocate their budgets even more finely. This is a bad sign for economic recovery and growth," the IEA said.
According to the IEA forecasts, global oil supplies will decrease by 400,000 barrels per day by the end of the year, as the expected increase in production by 1 million barrels per day outside OPEC+, starting in March, will be offset by a decrease in OPEC+ production by 1.4 million barrels per day.
The IEA added that the growth of global oil reserves may have influenced the decision of OPEC+, as the OECD industry reserves in January reached 2.83 billion barrels (the highest value since July 2021).
The IEA report also said that global oil demand is expected to grow by 2 million barrels per day in 2023, and reach a record 101.9 million barrels per day.
In addition, the IEA said that in March, Russian oil exports jumped to the highest level in almost three years, despite Western sanctions, but export revenues fell sharply compared to last year. According to IEA estimates, last month the total volume of oil supplies from Russia increased by 600,000 barrels per day, to 8.1 million barrels per day. Although Russia's oil revenues increased by $1 billion to $12.7 billion, they are still down 43 percent compared to last year.
Much of the increase was due to a rise in exports of oil products, which returned to pre-Covid levels as they climbed by 450,000 bpd to 3.1 million bpd, the IEA said.