Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar is showing negative dynamics

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
00:30AustraliaWestpac Consumer ConfidenceApril78.5 85.8
01:30ChinaPPI y/yMarch-1.4%-2.5%-2.5%
01:30AustraliaNational Australia Bank's Business ConfidenceMarch-4-2-1
01:30ChinaCPI y/yMarch1%1%0.7%
06:00JapanPrelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y March-10.7% -15.2%

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined moderately against major currencies, partially offsetting yesterday's increase, which was caused by increased expectations of further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.31% to 102.27. Yesterday the index rose by 0.44%.

The US Department of Labor said on Friday that the nonfarm payrolls increased by 236,000 in March, while economists had expected an increase of 239,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1% to 3.5%. Meanwhile, the growth of average hourly earnings slowed to 4.2% per annum from 4.6% per annum in February, but remained well above the Fed's 2% inflation target. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 69% chance that the Fed raised the interest rate by 0.25% at its May meeting, up from 44.8% a week earlier. The US consumer price index, due to be published on Wednesday, will be the next important indicator for determining the direction of the Fed's policy. According to economists, strong core CPI is likely to be the catalyst for a change in market pricing for May, and delay pricing for the start of rate cuts.

The Australian dollar rose 0.6% against the US dollar, amid a thawing of trade tensions with China, as the pair agreed to end a dispute over Australian barley.

The Chinese yuan consolidated against the US dollar, despite China's inflation data. Data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in March consumer prices rose at the weakest pace since September 2021, helped by a further drop in prices for food and non-food products. Meanwhile, the fall in producer prices accelerated in March, recording the sixth decline in a row, and the sharpest rate of decline since June 2020, which was due to lower commodity prices. Overall, the data pointing to the disinflation process reinforced the case for taking additional steps to support an uneven economic recovery.

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