Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar is showing positive dynamics.

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
05:00JapanLeading Economic Index February96.6 97.7
05:00JapanCoincident IndexFebruary96.4 99.2
06:45FranceTrade Balance, blnFebruary-12.54 -9.9

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose against major currencies, but slightly, due to the Easter holiday in several markets. Investors are also unwilling to open large positions ahead of the publication of a key report on the US labor market, which may cause a reassessment of the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.12% to 101.95.

As for the US data, hiring has remained surprisingly steady in recent months: 311,000 new jobs were added in February, which continued an 11-month period of stronger-than-expected growth of nonfarm payrolls. While the unemployment rate rose to 3.6% last month, this increase came against the backdrop of a third consecutive increase in the labor force by more than 400 thousand, which is a positive sign that the labor supply is responding to still increased demand, and restrictions for workers continue to weaken. The overall labor force participation rate is now at a new cycle high, while the labor force participation rate of working age corresponds to its peak of the previous cycle. The March employment report comes out too early to reflect the recent stress in the banking system. However, job growth already looked set to slow this spring after unusually warm weather in January and February and, more generally, as the effects of policy tightening continue to weigh on the economy. The number of vacancies, job ads and hiring plans has been declining for a year, while the number of layoff announcements has increased dramatically in recent months. It is expected that the growth in the number of jobs slowed down in March to 239 thousand. In general, the still tight labor market is likely to be reflected in the dynamics of average hourly wages - experts expect an increase of 0.3% after rising by 0.2% in February. Some economists predict that the nonfarm payrolls will turn negative in the second half of the year, which, according to them, will force the Fed to start cutting rates to avoid plunging the economy into a deep recession. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell opposed this assumption. Economists who forecast a rate cut this year argue that some sectors of the economy, such as housing construction, are already in recession, while stricter lending standards adopted by banks mean that lending will be more limited. They also noted that business sentiment was at recessionary levels, while consumer confidence remained weak.

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