Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar is showing negative dynamics

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
00:30AustraliaRetail Sales, M/MJanuary-4.0%1.9%1.9%
00:30AustraliaTrade Balance January12.98512.511.688
03:00ChinaTrade Balance, bln 7881.8116.88
03:30AustraliaAnnouncement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 3.35%3.6%3.6%
06:45SwitzerlandUnemployment Rate (non s.a.)February2.2% 2.1%
07:00United KingdomHalifax house price indexFebruary0.2%-0.3%1.1%
07:00United KingdomHalifax house price index 3m Y/YFebruary2.1% 2.1%
07:00GermanyFactory Orders s.a. (MoM)January3.4%-0.9%1%
08:00Switzerland Foreign Currency ReservesFebruary785.284 770.597

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined moderately against major currencies, while market participants took a wait-and-see attitude ahead of Fed Chairman Powell's speech, which will cause a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.10% to 104.22.

Powell's testimony will be monitored for any new signals about whether the Fed may accelerate the pace of rate hikes again in response to the latest data. After massive increases last year, the Fed increased interest rates by 25 basis points at its last two meetings. Fed funds futures traders estimate a 72.3% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on March 21-22, and a 27.7% probability of a 50 basis point increase. However, analysts note that the Fed may not want to accelerate the pace of rate hikes again, as this will probably indicate that the Central Bank made a mistake by moving to a 25 basis point increase.

The Australian dollar fell 0.5% against the US dollar on the back of the results of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting. As expected, the RBA raised the interest rate by 0.25% to 3.6%. Since May 2022, the RBA has increased the cost of borrowing by 3.5%. The bank stated that it aims to return inflation to the target range of 2%-3%, while maintaining the stability of the economy, but the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one. "The RBA expects that further tightening of monetary policy will be required to ensure that inflation returns to the target level, and that this period of high inflation is only temporary," said RBA Governor Philip Lowe.

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