Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar is showing negative dynamics

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
00:00AustraliaMI Inflation Gauge, m/mFebruary0.9% 0.4%
07:30SwitzerlandConsumer Price Index (MoM) February0.6%0.4%0.7%
07:30SwitzerlandConsumer Price Index (YoY)February3.3%3.1%3.4%

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies, while investors were assessing the news from China and preparing for the speech of Fed Chairman Powell.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.15% to 104.57.

The yuan fell 0.15% against the US dollar after Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the government had set a growth target of "about 5%" for 2023. Analysts generally expected the GDP growth target to be above 5%. China also set a goal of 3% for the CPI, and a 5.5% unemployment rate for people in cities - with the creation of around 12 million new urban jobs. That’s more than last year’s target of “over 11 million. The deficit-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase to 3% from 2.8% last year.

Investors also await Powell's testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, which may clarify the prospects for monetary policy. Even as recent projections suggested a terminal rate of 5.1% against the current Fed target range of 4.50%-4.75%, the market is currently pricing in over 5.4%.

According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now seeing a 24.7% probability of a 50-basis-point rate rise at the Fed’s March gathering, compared to 3.3% a month ago. Also, they are pricing in at least a 58.9% chance that the target range for the federal funds rate will be hiked to 5.25%-5.50% in June, compared to 28.8% a month ago.

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