Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar is showing negative dynamics

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
01:45ChinaMarkit/Caixin Services PMIFebruary52.9 55
07:00GermanyTrade Balance (non s.a.), blnJanuary9.7 10.8
07:45FranceIndustrial Production, m/mJanuary1.5%0.1%-1.9%

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined moderately against major currencies amid partial profit-taking after yesterday's rally. Investors are also adjusting their positions ahead of the publication of new US data and statements by Fed policymakers, which may cause a reassessment of the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.25% to 104.76. Yesterday, the index rose by 0.52%.

Yesterday, the US Department of Labor announced that in the week ending February 25, the number of initial jobless claims fell by 2,000, to 190,000, which was below market expectations (195,000). The latest reading remained close to the nine-month low of 183,000 reached at the end of January, which is further evidence that the US labor market remains tight, which could put pressure on the Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Susan Collins, said yesterday that, in her opinion, further interest rate increases are necessary to curb inflation. She added that the number of additional Fed rate hikes will depend on incoming data. Market participants now expect the Fed's rates to peak at 5.5% in September, which is almost a percentage point higher than the current level.

As for today's events, the ISM non-manufacturing index for February will be published at 15:00 GMT. It is expected that it will show a slight deterioration, but will remain in the expansion area. 10 out of 18 industries reported growth last month, and the industries that showed a decline - retail and wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, construction and information, among others - reflect a gradual adaptation to the general slowdown in economic growth and new conditions with higher rates. On the demand side, new orders and supplier deliveries have improved, indicating that growth is possible in the short term, despite broader challenges. According to forecasts, in February, the non-manufacturing index fell to 54.5 from 55.2.

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