Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar is showing positive dynamics

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
00:00New ZealandANZ Business ConfidenceFebruary-52 -43.3
00:30AustraliaPrivate Sector Credit, m/mJanuary0.3%0.3%0.4%
00:30AustraliaPrivate Sector Credit, y/yJanuary8.3% 8%
00:30AustraliaCurrent Account, blnQuarter IV0.86.514.1
00:30AustraliaRetail Sales, M/MJanuary-4.0%1.5%1.9%
05:00JapanConstruction Orders, y/yJanuary8.5% -14%
05:00JapanHousing Starts, y/yJanuary-1.7%1%6.6%
07:45FranceConsumer spending January-1.6%0.4%1.5%
07:45FranceGDP, Y/YQuarter IV1%0.5%0.5%
07:45FranceCPI, m/mFebruary0.4%0.7%0.9%
07:45FranceCPI, y/yFebruary6%6.1%6.2%
07:45FranceGDP, q/qQuarter IV0.2%0.1%0.1%
08:00SwitzerlandGross Domestic Product (YoY)Quarter IV0.9% 0.7%
08:00SwitzerlandGross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter IV0.2%0.1%0%
08:00SwitzerlandKOF Leading IndicatorFebruary97.498100

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose moderately against major currencies, while market participants continue to revise their expectations for the Fed's peak rate.

The futures market expects the Fed rate to peak at 5.4% this year, although a month ago the peak rate was estimated at 5%.

The adjustment of traders' expectations is related to the signals of the stability of inflation in the United States. According to the data published on Friday, in January, the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) increased by 0.6% compared to the previous month (the largest increase in six months) and by 5.4% per annum. Growth accelerated compared to December, when PCE increased by 0.2% and 5.3%, respectively.

Data on the eurozone, which will be released on Thursday, is expected to show some weakening of inflation in the region in February. The consensus forecast of analysts suggests a slowdown in consumer price growth to 8.2% per annum from 8.6% per annum in January. However, the growth rate of the core CPI is expected to remain at 5.3%, which is a record high. The swap market suggests that the ECB deposit rate, currently at 2.5%, will reach 3.9% in February 2024.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.20% to 104.88.

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