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Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar has stabilized against major currencies

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
00:01United KingdomGfk Consumer ConfidenceFebruary-45-43-38
07:00GermanyGDP (YoY)Quarter IV1.4%1.1%0.9%
07:00GermanyGDP (QoQ)Quarter IV0.5%-0.2%-0.4%
07:00GermanyGfk Consumer Confidence SurveyMarch-33.8-30.4-30.5
07:30SwitzerlandNon Farm PayrollsQuarter IV5.362 5.398
07:45FranceConsumer confidence February838082

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies after a slight increase yesterday, while investors continue to analyze the latest US data, which increased the likelihood of further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.05% to 104.63.

Yesterday, the US Department of Labor announced that in the week ending February 18, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 3,000, to 192,000. Economists had expected an increase to 200,000. The latest reading remained close to the nine-month low (183,000), reached at the end of January, which is further evidence that the US labor market remains tight. This may force employers to raise wages to attract and retain staff, which will increase inflationary pressure in the world's largest economy. At the same time, the revised US GDP data showed that in the 4th quarter the economy grew by 2.7%, which was slightly weaker than the preliminary estimate (+2.9%).

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors continue to see a 27% probability of a more aggressive - by 50 basis points - rate hike in March, while most market participants expect a continuation of the rate hike by 0.25%, and reaching the range of 5.25-5.50% by mid-June.

Meanwhile, today investors will focus on the core PCE price index - the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. According to the forecast, in January the growth of the index accelerated to 0.4% from 0.3% in December. On an annualized basis, the index is expected to have grown by 4.3% after an increase of 4.4% in December.

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