Goldman Sachs economists said that against the background of the latest stronger-than-expected US data, the Fed may raise the cost of borrowing three more times by 0.25% by the end of 2023. Earlier, experts expected two rate increases of 0.25%.
Yesterday's data showed that producer prices in the United States rose more than expected in January, indicating continued inflationary pressure, and strengthens the arguments in favor of a further increase in interest rates by the Fed and a higher peak level.
A separate report showed that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell by 1 thousand last week, to 194 thousand, which confirms that the US labor market remains very tight. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently see a 48.6% chance of a 0.25% interest rate hike at the Fed's June meeting after similar actions in March and May. A month ago, the chances of a rate hike in June were estimated at only 6.2%. Meanwhile, expectations of a reduction in the cost of borrowing at the end of this year have declined significantly, while the chances of a higher peak funds rate - 5.25% or even 5.50% - are growing.
"Given the strong economic growth and high inflation, we now expect a 0.25% rate hike in June and believe that the peak funds rate will be 5.25-5.5%," Goldman Sachs economists said.
J.P.Morgan, prior to the publication of recent US data, predicted a rate of 5.1% by the end of June, while BofA Global Research predicted a peak rate in the range of 5.0% to 5.25% by the end of the year.