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European session review: USD retreats ahead of U.S. January inflation data

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
07:00United KingdomAverage earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/yDecember6.5%6.5%6.7%
07:00United KingdomAverage Earnings, 3m/y December6.5%6.2%5.9%
07:00United KingdomILO Unemployment RateDecember3.7%3.7%3.7%
07:00United KingdomClaimant count January-3.2 -12.9
07:30SwitzerlandProducer & Import Prices, y/yJanuary3.2% 3.3%
10:00EurozoneEmployment ChangeQuarter IV0.3%0.2%0.4%
10:00EurozoneGDP (QoQ)Quarter IV0.3%0.1%0.1%
10:00EurozoneGDP (YoY)Quarter IV2.3%1.9%1.9%

USD depreciated against most of its counterparts in the European session on Tuesday as investors waited for the U.S. inflation report for January later in the day, which might provide clues on the prospects of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. 

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, fell 0.37% to 102.96.

The U.S. CPI report will be released at 13:30 GMT, and economists expect it will confirm inflation continued to moderate in January, with the headline CPI easing to 6.2% y/y from 6.5% y/y in December 2022, and the core CPI slowing to 5.5% from 5.7% in the previous month.

Hotter-than-expected CPI prints could force the markets to re-assess their expectations for a pause in the Fed’s interest rate increases beyond May. 

According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in only a 37.9% probability of an additional 25-basis-point rate hike in June, following similar increases in March and May, the chances of which are estimated at 84.9% and 65.2%, respectively.

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