Ekonomické zprávy

US bond yields are showing negative dynamics

The yield on US Treasury bonds declined moderately, while market participants took a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the publication of US inflation data.

The yield on 5-year Treasury bonds fell by 2.1 basis points, reaching 3.905%, while the yield on 30-year bonds was 3.771% (-2.1 basis points). Meanwhile, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds, reflecting expectations of short-term interest rates, decreased by 2.2 basis points to 4.512%, while the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 3.70% (-1.9 basis points). The curve between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year yield remains inverted, sending a warning that the economy may be falling or has already fallen into recession. Now the gap between 10 and 2 year U.S. debt is 81 basis points.

As for the US data, the CPI report will be published at 13:30 GMT. Experts note that the report may confirm that the fight against inflation is far from over, dispelling hopes for an early end to the Fed's monetary tightening cycle. According to experts' forecasts, consumer prices in January increased by 6.2% per annum compared to +6.5% per annum in December.

A number of Fed officials have indicated that future rate decisions will depend on economic data. Meanwhile, Fed Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman said yesterday that the Fed will need to continue raising interest rates to bring them to a level sufficient to reduce inflation. Money markets now expect interest rates to peak at 5.2% around July, while expectations of a significant rate cut later this year have weakened sharply.

In addition to inflation data, today the market will focus on speeches by members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), namely Lorie Logan (at 16:00 GMT), Patrick Harker (at 16:30 GMT) and John Williams (at 19:05 GMT). Investors will study the comments in search of fresh hints on the Fed's monetary policy and expectations for the economy.

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