The SNB remains ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary to counter the upward pressure on the Swiss franc. The Swiss franc is still highly valued.
The SNB’s new conditional inflation forecast for 2021 and 2022 is slightly above that of September. The new forecast is 0.6% for 2021, 1.0% for 2022 and 0.6% for 2023.
The coronavirus pandemic continues to shape the global economic situation.
The global economic recovery slowed somewhat in the third quarter due to waves of infection in certain regions and supply problems in various manufacturing industries.
In its baseline scenario for the global economy, the SNB assumes that it will not be necessary to re-introduce extensive containment measures, despite the adverse events associated with the pandemic at present. Thus, the economic recovery should continue, albeit somewhat restrained.
Supply bottlenecks are likely to persist for some time, which will lead to an increase in prices for the corresponding goods. However, in the medium term, this situation is likely to improve when foreign inflation returns to more moderate levels.
In Switzerland, the economic recovery continues, the situation on the labor market also continues to improve.
Switzerland's GDP is likely to grow by about 3.5% this year. This is slightly higher than the SNB expected in September.
In its baseline scenario for Switzerland, the SNB expects the economic recovery to continue next year. This is based on the assumption that there will be no need to introduce any measures that would further worsen economic activity. Against this background, the SNB expects GDP growth of about 3% in 2022.