According to Julian Howard, asset manager at GAM Investments, it should not be ruled out that the current ultra-low interest rates will not rise for a very long time, despite the fact that many Central Banks have signaled a desire to normalize policy.
Howard noted that the current low interest rates can "actually a return to a very, very long-term trend of yields falling over an extended period of time.”
In addition, Howard noted that changes in the climate situation and the negative impact of the coronavirus on the global economy will have "an extremely negative impact on interest rates.”
According to Howard, the Federal Reserve may not start raising rates until the second half of 2022. But the Fed has already begun to normalize its policy - earlier in November, the Fed said it would begin reducing bond purchases “later in November”" and noted that the pace of consumer price growth was faster and more stable than central banks had predicted. As for the prospects of raising rates, the Fed warned against expectations of an imminent increase.