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Ekonomické zprávy
25.10.2021

BoE's MPC member Tenreyro: Some inflation drivers are expected to remain short-lived and BoE can do little to offset them

  • Since August, we have had large upside news for near-term inflation from energy prices, effect which should fade quickly
  • Effects of supply chain disruption should also be temporary but speed of rotation back to normal is key uncertainty
  • Balance of recent news on economy is unlikely to have large effect on the amount of tightening required over next few years
  • Domestic cost pressures will depend on the evolution of labor market now that furlough scheme has ended
  • Uncertainty over furlough scheme effects should be resolved over the coming months, which should help paint a clearer picture of labour market
  • There is possibility that higher inflation or higher inflation expectations begin to feed through into higher wage demands
  • There is also risk that the end of furlough scheme leads to loosening in the labour market and moderation in wage pressures

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