Ekonomické zprávy
19.10.2021

RBA sees growth returning after Delta, but no rate rise

Reuters reports that minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Oct. 5 policy meeting showed that the Central bank expects the economy to return to growth in the current quarter after an outbreak of the Delta variant of COVID-19 derailed a recovery, but still does not expect to raise interest rates until 2024.

"In the central scenario, the economy would return to growth in the December quarter and to its pre-Delta path in the second half of 2022," the RBA said.

Surging housing prices and credit were discussed by the Board, which felt that while tighter monetary policy would slow the housing frenzy it would also lead unacceptably to fewer jobs and lower wages growth.

"If housing prices and lending remain firm into 2022 we could see a further lift in the serviceability buffer," Commonwealth Bank senior economist Katrina Clifton said in a report.

The RBA slashed its official cash rate to a record low of 0.1% last year to support the economy during the pandemic, and has since consistently said it does not expect to raise interest rates before 2024 given sluggish wages growth and inflation.

Markets however have been pricing in rate rises before then, particularly as some other central banks, including neighbouring New Zealand, have started to tighten policy.

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