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18.10.2021

ECB to leave the euro sluggish as its policy has sequence limitations - TDS

FXStreet reports that strategists at TD Securities discuss the prospects of earlier tightening by central banks.

“We think there are some central banks that are more at risk of acting ‘early’ than expected. The BoE is certainly one of them.”

“CAD outperformance has been broadly based and even stretched in some places. That could create some pullback risk at next week's BoC meeting.”

“Then there are some regions where there have been holdouts within the central bank community and hence, make it ripe for the market to call out their bluff. The RBA is the standout since the central bank has been rather steadfast in keeping policy rates unchanged for the foreseeable future.”

“Then there are some central banks that are not quite there in terms of delivering on market expectations. Here, the ECB comes to mind. The reality is that in a reasonably hawkish scenario, the ECB won't be in a position to end QE until late next year, which puts 2023 (likely the latter half) as the risk scenario for tightening. Ultimately, this central bank backdrop leaves EUR rather sluggish overall."

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